Assessing bias in demographic estimates from joint live and dead encounter models.

Joint encounter (JE) models estimate demographic rates using live recapture and dead recovery data. The extent to which limited recapture or recovery data can hinder estimation in JE models is not completely understood. Yet limited data are common in ecological research. We designed a series of simulations using Bayesian multistate JE models that spanned a large range of potential recapture probabilities (0.01-0.90) and two reported mortality probabilities (0.10, 0.19). We calculated bias by comparing estimates against known probabilities of survival, fidelity and reported mortality. We explored whether sparse data (i.e., recapture probabilities <0.02) compromised inference about survival by comparing estimates from dead recovery (DR) and JE models using an 18-year data set from a migratory bird, the lesser snow goose (Anser caerulescens caerulescens). Our simulations showed that bias in probabilities of survival, fidelity and reported mortality was relatively low across a large range of recapture probabilities, except when recapture and reported mortality probabilities were both lowest. While bias in fidelity probability was similar across all recapture probabilities, the root mean square error declined substantially with increased recapture probabilities for reported mortality probabilities of 0.10 or 0.19, as expected. In our case study, annual survival probabilities for adult female snow geese were similar whether estimated with JE or DR models, but more precise from JE models than those from DR models. Thus, our simulated and empirical data suggest acceptably minimal bias in survival, fidelity or reported mortality probabilities estimated from JE models. Even a small amount of recapture information provided adequate structure for JE models, except when reported mortality probabilities were <0.10. Thus, practitioners with limited recapture data should not be discouraged from use of JE models. We recommend that ecologists incorporate other data types as frequently as analytically possible, since precision of focal parameters is improved, and additional parameters of interest can be estimated.

Decadal declines in avian herbivore reproduction: density-dependent nutrition and phenological mismatch in the Arctic.

A full understanding of population dynamics depends not only on estimation of mechanistic contributions of recruitment and survival, but also knowledge about the ecological processes that drive each of these vital rates. The process of recruitment in particular may be protracted over several years, and can depend on numerous ecological complexities until sexually mature adulthood is attained. We addressed long-term declines (23 breeding seasons, 1992-2014) in the per capita production of young by both Ross's Geese (Chen rossii) and Lesser Snow Geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens) nesting at Karrak Lake in Canada's central Arctic. During this period, there was a contemporaneous increase from 0.4 to 1.1 million adults nesting at this colony. We evaluated whether (1) density-dependent nutritional deficiencies of pre-breeding females or (2) phenological mismatch between peak gosling hatch and peak forage quality, inferred from NDVI on the brood-rearing areas, may have been behind decadal declines in the per capita production of goslings. We found that, in years when pre-breeding females arrived to the nesting grounds with diminished nutrient reserves, the proportional composition of young during brood-rearing was reduced for both species. Furthermore, increased mismatch between peak gosling hatch and peak forage quality contributed additively to further declines in gosling production, in addition to declines caused by delayed nesting with associated subsequent negative effects on clutch size and nest success. The degree of mismatch increased over the course of our study because of advanced vegetation phenology without a corresponding advance in Goose nesting phenology. Vegetation phenology was significantly earlier in years with warm surface air temperatures measured in spring (i.e., 25 May-30 June). We suggest that both increased phenological mismatch and reduced nutritional condition of arriving females were behind declines in population-level recruitment, leading to the recent attenuation in population growth of Snow Geese.

Trace element concentrations in blood of nesting king eiders in the canadian arctic.

The king eider (Somateria spectabilis) is a migratory species of sea duck whose North American population is thought to be declining. We determined levels of cadmium, lead, selenium, and mercury in blood from female king eiders nesting in the central Canadian Arctic from 2001 to 2003. Year-to-year repeatability estimates were calculated from birds sampled in 2 or 3 years. Repeatability coefficients were 0.45, 0.35, 0.58, and 0.25 for cadmium, lead, selenium, and mercury, respectively. The first three were significantly different from zero (p < 0.05), whereas the last approached significance (0.05 < p < 0.1). In 2001 and 2002, we also identified probable wintering locations of a subset of the birds. In both years, cadmium levels were higher and selenium levels were lower in birds inferred to have wintered in the eastern part of their range compared to those that had wintered in the west. There was little evidence that timing of breeding, timing of sampling, or body condition were related to levels of these trace elements, although in 1 of 2 years, lead levels were influenced by body condition and nest initiation date (R(2) = 0.24) and cadmium levels were related to incubation day (partial R(2) = 0.04). Year-to-year repeatability of cadmium and selenium levels among individuals in this population of king eiders was likely influenced by where they wintered.

Survival rates and blood metal concentrations in two species of free-ranging North American sea ducks.

Populations of several species of North American sea ducks have declined in the past few decades. Exposure to environmental contaminants, particularly metals, has been proposed as one of many possible factors contributing to these declines. Population dynamics are influenced by survival rates and breeding effort. In the present study, we examined the relationships between blood metal concentrations (Cd, Pb, Se, and Hg) and apparent annual survival and recapture probabilities (the latter as a surrogate for breeding effort) in adult females of two sea duck species, the king eider (Somateria spectabilis) and the white-winged scoter (Melanitta fusca), both of which have experienced declines in continental population during in recent years. No support was found for the hypothesis that exposure of white-winged scoters to these metals or of king eiders to Cd, Se, and Pb adversely affected probabilities of apparent annual survival. We detected a weak negative relationship (beta = -0.833) between Hg and annual survival of king eiders, but the 90% confidence interval of the slope estimate overlapped zero (-2.439 to +0.672). Recapture probabilities were unrelated to concentrations of Cd, Se, and Pb in either species. Evidence indicated that Hg concentrations affected recapture probability in white-winged scoters (beta = -194.77; 90% confidence interval, -203.770 to -185.778). Mercury levels were low in both species, and blood samples may not adequately represent long-term exposure to Hg. Therefore, conclusions regarding Hg effects on these birds should be considered with caution.